IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (86) Semele / TYC 0857-00124-1 event on 2010 Feb 07, 15:57 UT Visible from Japan, Russia Summary ------- On 2010 Feb 07 UT, the 121 km diameter asteroid (86) Semele will occult a 9.4 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a path across Japan, Russia. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.5 mag to 13.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.3 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 93 * date and approx. time of event: 2010 Feb 07, 15:50 - 2010 Feb 07, 16:06 UT * magnitude of target star: 9.4 * magnitude drop [mag]: 4.5 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 11.3 * Moon: 33 % sunlit, 76° distance * Sun: 146° distance * rough path description: Japan, Russia The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 130 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.47 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 5.2 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .030 +/- .031) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .031", .030", 4° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 10.6852 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 0857-00124-1 by 86 Semele on 2010 Feb 7 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 55 0 0 54 6 35 16 6 57 0 76 -26 54 42 48 53 30 32 55 16 59 52 56 46 56 0 0 54 15 27 16 6 57 1 77 -26 54 51 35 53 39 29 55 25 40 53 5 48 57 0 0 54 23 55 16 6 57 2 77 -27 54 59 57 53 48 1 55 33 58 53 14 25 58 0 0 54 31 58 16 6 57 2 78 -27 55 7 56 53 56 10 55 41 52 53 22 38 59 0 0 54 39 38 16 6 56 3 79 -28 55 15 31 54 3 54 55 49 23 53 30 27 60 0 0 54 46 54 16 6 56 3 80 -28 55 22 42 54 11 15 55 56 30 53 37 51 61 0 0 54 53 47 16 6 56 4 81 -29 55 29 31 54 18 12 56 3 15 53 44 52 62 0 0 55 0 16 16 6 55 5 81 -30 55 35 57 54 24 45 56 9 37 53 51 29 63 0 0 55 6 23 16 6 55 5 82 -30 55 41 59 54 30 55 56 15 36 53 57 43 64 0 0 55 12 7 16 6 54 6 83 -31 55 47 40 54 36 43 56 21 13 54 3 33 65 0 0 55 17 28 16 6 53 6 84 -31 55 52 58 54 42 7 56 26 28 54 9 1 66 0 0 55 22 27 16 6 53 7 85 -32 55 57 54 54 47 9 56 31 21 54 14 6 67 0 0 55 27 4 16 6 52 7 86 -32 56 2 27 54 51 48 56 35 52 54 18 48 68 0 0 55 31 18 16 6 51 8 86 -33 56 6 39 54 56 6 56 40 1 54 23 7 69 0 0 55 35 11 16 6 50 9 87 -33 56 10 30 55 0 0 56 43 49 54 27 4 70 0 0 55 38 42 16 6 49 9 88 -34 56 13 58 55 3 33 56 47 16 54 30 39 71 0 0 55 41 51 16 6 48 10 89 -34 56 17 5 55 6 44 56 50 21 54 33 51 72 0 0 55 44 38 16 6 47 10 90 -35 56 19 51 55 9 33 56 53 6 54 36 42 73 0 0 55 47 4 16 6 46 11 90 -35 56 22 16 55 12 0 56 55 29 54 39 11 74 0 0 55 49 8 16 6 45 11 91 -35 56 24 19 55 14 6 56 57 31 54 41 17 75 0 0 55 50 52 16 6 43 12 92 -36 56 26 1 55 15 50 56 59 12 54 43 2 76 0 0 55 52 13 16 6 42 12 93 -36 56 27 22 55 17 13 57 0 33 54 44 25 77 0 0 55 53 14 16 6 41 13 94 -37 56 28 23 55 18 14 57 1 32 54 45 27 78 0 0 55 53 53 16 6 39 14 95 -37 56 29 2 55 18 53 57 2 11 54 46 7 79 0 0 55 54 12 16 6 38 14 95 -38 56 29 20 55 19 12 57 2 30 54 46 25 80 0 0 55 54 9 16 6 36 15 96 -38 56 29 17 55 19 9 57 2 27 54 46 22 81 0 0 55 53 45 16 6 34 15 97 -39 56 28 54 55 18 44 57 2 4 54 45 57 82 0 0 55 53 0 16 6 33 16 98 -39 56 28 10 55 17 59 57 1 21 54 45 11 83 0 0 55 51 54 16 6 31 16 99 -40 56 27 4 55 16 52 57 0 16 54 44 3 84 0 0 55 50 27 16 6 29 17 100 -40 56 25 38 55 15 23 56 58 51 54 42 34 85 0 0 55 48 38 16 6 27 17 100 -41 56 23 51 55 13 34 56 57 5 54 40 42 86 0 0 55 46 29 16 6 25 18 101 -41 56 21 43 55 11 22 56 54 59 54 38 30 87 0 0 55 43 58 16 6 23 19 102 -41 56 19 14 55 8 50 56 52 32 54 35 56 88 0 0 55 41 6 16 6 21 19 103 -42 56 16 24 55 5 56 56 49 44 54 33 0 89 0 0 55 37 52 16 6 19 20 104 -42 56 13 13 55 2 40 56 46 35 54 29 42 90 0 0 55 34 17 16 6 17 20 105 -43 56 9 41 54 59 3 56 43 5 54 26 2 91 0 0 55 30 21 16 6 15 21 106 -43 56 5 47 54 55 3 56 39 13 54 22 0 92 0 0 55 26 3 16 6 13 21 106 -44 56 1 32 54 50 42 56 35 1 54 17 37 93 0 0 55 21 23 16 6 10 22 107 -44 55 56 55 54 46 0 56 30 28 54 12 51 94 0 0 55 16 22 16 6 8 23 108 -45 55 51 57 54 40 55 56 25 33 54 7 43 95 0 0 55 10 58 16 6 5 23 109 -45 55 46 37 54 35 28 56 20 16 54 2 13 96 0 0 55 5 13 16 6 3 24 110 -45 55 40 55 54 29 38 56 14 38 53 56 20 97 0 0 54 59 5 16 6 0 24 111 -46 55 34 52 54 23 26 56 8 38 53 50 4 98 0 0 54 52 35 16 5 58 25 111 -46 55 28 26 54 16 52 56 2 16 53 43 26 99 0 0 54 45 42 16 5 55 25 112 -47 55 21 38 54 9 55 55 55 32 53 36 25 100 0 0 54 38 26 16 5 52 26 113 -47 55 14 27 54 2 35 55 48 26 53 29 0 101 0 0 54 30 48 16 5 49 27 114 -47 55 6 53 53 54 52 55 40 57 53 21 13 102 0 0 54 22 47 16 5 46 27 115 -48 54 58 57 53 46 46 55 33 6 53 13 2 103 0 0 54 14 22 16 5 43 28 116 -48 54 50 38 53 38 16 55 24 52 53 4 27 104 0 0 54 5 34 16 5 40 28 117 -49 54 41 55 53 29 22 55 16 14 52 55 29 105 0 0 53 56 23 16 5 37 29 118 -49 54 32 49 53 20 5 55 7 14 52 46 6 106 0 0 53 46 47 16 5 33 29 118 -49 54 23 20 53 10 24 54 57 50 52 36 20 107 0 0 53 36 47 16 5 30 30 119 -50 54 13 26 53 0 18 54 48 2 52 26 9 108 0 0 53 26 24 16 5 27 31 120 -50 54 3 9 52 49 48 54 37 50 52 15 33 109 0 0 53 15 35 16 5 23 31 121 -51 53 52 27 52 38 53 54 27 14 52 4 32 110 0 0 53 4 22 16 5 19 32 122 -51 53 41 20 52 27 34 54 16 14 51 53 6 111 0 0 52 52 44 16 5 16 32 123 -51 53 29 48 52 15 49 54 4 49 51 41 15 112 0 0 52 40 40 16 5 12 33 124 -52 53 17 52 52 3 38 53 52 59 51 28 58 113 0 0 52 28 11 16 5 8 34 125 -52 53 5 30 51 51 2 53 40 44 51 16 16 114 0 0 52 15 16 16 5 4 34 125 -52 52 52 42 51 38 0 53 28 3 51 3 7 115 0 0 52 1 55 16 5 0 35 126 -53 52 39 29 51 24 32 53 14 57 50 49 32 116 0 0 51 48 8 16 4 56 36 127 -53 52 25 49 51 10 37 53 1 24 50 35 30 117 0 0 51 33 54 16 4 51 36 128 -53 52 11 43 50 56 16 52 47 26 50 21 2 118 0 0 51 19 13 16 4 47 37 129 -54 51 57 10 50 41 27 52 33 0 50 6 6 119 0 0 51 4 6 16 4 42 37 130 -54 51 42 10 50 26 11 52 18 8 49 50 43 120 0 0 50 48 30 16 4 38 38 131 -54 51 26 43 50 10 28 52 2 49 49 34 53 121 0 0 50 32 27 16 4 33 39 132 -55 51 10 49 49 54 17 51 47 2 49 18 34 122 0 0 50 15 57 16 4 28 39 133 -55 50 54 26 49 37 38 51 30 48 49 1 47 123 0 0 49 58 57 16 4 23 40 134 -55 50 37 35 49 20 31 51 14 5 48 44 32 124 0 0 49 41 30 16 4 18 41 135 -56 50 20 16 49 2 55 50 56 54 48 26 49 125 0 0 49 23 34 16 4 13 41 136 -56 50 2 29 48 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0 43 54 27 16 2 41 52 151 -58 44 35 35 43 13 34 45 14 28 42 35 19 141 0 0 43 28 23 16 2 33 52 153 -58 44 9 40 42 47 21 44 48 40 42 8 59 142 0 0 43 1 48 16 2 26 53 154 -58 43 43 13 42 20 38 44 22 21 41 42 8 143 0 0 42 34 41 16 2 18 54 155 -58 43 16 14 41 53 23 43 55 31 41 14 46 144 0 0 42 7 3 16 2 11 55 156 -58 42 48 44 41 25 37 43 28 9 40 46 52 145 0 0 41 38 54 16 2 3 55 158 -57 42 20 43 40 57 20 43 0 15 40 18 28 146 0 0 41 10 14 16 1 55 56 159 -57 41 52 10 40 28 32 42 31 50 39 49 33 147 0 0 40 41 2 16 1 46 57 160 -57 41 23 7 39 59 13 42 2 53 39 20 7 148 0 0 40 11 21 16 1 38 57 162 -57 40 53 32 39 29 24 41 33 26 38 50 12 149 0 0 39 41 8 16 1 30 58 163 -57 40 23 27 38 59 4 41 3 27 38 19 46 150 0 0 39 10 25 16 1 21 59 165 -56 39 52 51 38 28 15 40 32 58 37 48 50 151 0 0 38 39 13 16 1 12 59 167 -56 39 21 45 37 56 56 40 1 59 37 17 24 152 0 0 38 7 31 16 1 3 60 168 -56 38 50 9 37 25 7 39 30 29 36 45 30 153 0 0 37 35 19 16 0 54 61 170 -56 38 18 4 36 52 50 38 58 30 36 13 7 154 0 0 37 2 39 16 0 45 61 172 -55 37 45 30 36 20 4 38 26 1 35 40 16 155 0 0 36 29 31 16 0 36 62 174 -55 37 12 27 35 46 50 37 53 4 35 6 57 156 0 0 35 55 55 16 0 26 63 176 -54 36 38 57 35 13 9 37 19 39 34 33 11 157 0 0 35 21 52 16 0 17 63 178 -54 36 4 59 34 39 1 36 45 45 33 58 59 158 0 0 34 47 22 16 0 7 64 180 -53 35 30 34 34 4 27 36 11 25 33 24 20 159 0 0 34 12 27 15 59 57 64 182 -53 34 55 43 33 29 28 35 36 38 32 49 17 160 0 0 33 37 6 15 59 47 65 184 -52 34 20 26 32 54 3 35 1 25 32 13 49 161 0 0 33 1 22 15 59 37 66 187 -52 33 44 45 32 18 15 34 25 47 31 37 57 162 0 0 32 25 13 15 59 27 66 189 -51 33 8 40 31 42 3 33 49 45 31 1 42 163 0 0 31 48 42 15 59 16 66 192 -51 32 32 11 31 5 29 33 13 20 30 25 5 164 0 0 31 11 49 15 59 6 67 194 -50 31 55 21 30 28 33 32 36 31 29 48 7 165 0 0 30 34 35 15 58 55 67 197 -49 31 18 9 29 51 17 31 59 22 29 10 49 166 0 0 29 57 0 15 58 44 68 200 -49 30 40 36 29 13 41 31 21 51 28 33 12 167 0 0 29 19 7 15 58 34 68 203 -48 30 2 45 28 35 46 30 44 1 27 55 16 168 0 0 28 40 56 15 58 23 68 206 -47 29 24 35 27 57 34 30 5 52 27 17 3 169 0 0 28 2 28 15 58 12 68 209 -46 28 46 7 27 19 6 29 27 25 26 38 34 170 0 0 27 23 45 15 58 1 68 212 -46 28 7 24 26 40 22 28 48 42 25 59 49 171 0 0 26 44 46 15 57 50 68 215 -45 27 28 26 26 1 24 28 9 43 25 20 51 172 0 0 26 5 35 15 57 38 69 219 -44 26 49 13 25 22 12 27 30 30 24 41 40 173 0 0 25 26 11 15 57 27 68 222 -43 26 9 48 24 42 49 26 51 5 24 2 18 174 0 0 24 46 35 15 57 16 68 225 -42 25 30 12 24 3 15 26 11 27 23 22 45 175 0 0 24 6 51 15 57 5 68 228 -42 24 50 26 23 23 32 25 31 39 22 43 3 176 0 0 23 26 57 15 56 53 68 231 -41 24 10 30 22 43 40 24 51 42 22 3 13 177 0 0 22 46 56 15 56 42 68 234 -40 23 30 27 22 3 42 24 11 36 21 23 17 178 0 0 22 6 50 15 56 30 67 237 -39 22 50 18 21 23 38 23 31 24 20 43 15 179 0 0 21 26 38 15 56 19 67 240 -38 22 10 3 20 43 30 22 51 7 20 3 10 180 0 0 20 46 24 15 56 8 66 242 -37 21 29 45 20 3 18 22 10 46 19 23 1 -179 0 0 20 6 7 15 55 56 66 245 -36 20 49 25 19 23 5 21 30 22 18 42 52 -178 0 0 19 25 50 15 55 45 65 247 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271 -21 10 54 29 9 31 5 11 34 0 8 52 12 -163 0 0 9 34 46 15 53 1 53 272 -20 10 16 27 8 53 19 10 55 51 8 14 32 -162 0 0 8 57 11 15 52 51 52 273 -19 9 38 44 8 15 51 10 18 1 7 37 12 -161 0 0 8 19 55 15 52 41 51 274 -18 9 1 21 7 38 43 9 40 30 7 0 11 -160 0 0 7 43 1 15 52 31 50 274 -17 8 24 18 7 1 57 9 3 20 6 23 32 -159 0 0 7 6 29 15 52 21 49 275 -16 7 47 38 6 25 32 8 26 32 5 47 15 -158 0 0 6 30 19 15 52 12 48 276 -15 7 11 20 5 49 31 7 50 6 5 11 21 -157 0 0 5 54 33 15 52 2 47 276 -14 6 35 26 5 13 53 7 14 4 4 35 51 -156 0 0 5 19 12 15 51 53 46 277 -13 5 59 57 4 38 41 6 38 27 4 0 46 -155 0 0 4 44 17 15 51 44 45 278 -11 5 24 53 4 3 53 6 3 15 3 26 6 -154 0 0 4 9 48 15 51 35 44 278 -10 4 50 15 3 29 32 5 28 29 2 51 53 -153 0 0 3 35 45 15 51 27 43 279 -9 4 16 5 2 55 39 4 54 10 2 18 7 -152 0 0 3 2 11 15 51 18 42 279 -8 3 42 22 2 22 13 4 20 19 1 44 48 -151 0 0 2 29 5 15 51 10 41 279 -7 3 9 7 1 49 15 3 46 56 1 11 59 -150 0 0 1 56 28 15 51 2 40 280 -6 2 36 22 1 16 47 3 14 3 0 39 38 -149 0 0 1 24 21 15 50 54 39 280 -5 2 4 6 0 44 48 2 41 39 0 7 47 -148 0 0 0 52 45 15 50 46 38 280 -4 1 32 21 0 13 20 2 9 46 - 0 23 33 -147 0 0 0 21 39 15 50 39 37 281 -3 1 1 7 - 0 17 38 1 38 24 - 0 54 23 -146 0 0 - 0 8 55 15 50 32 36 281 -2 0 30 24 - 0 48 4 1 7 33 - 1 24 41 -145 0 0 - 0 38 58 15 50 25 35 281 -1 0 0 13 - 1 17 58 0 37 14 - 1 54 27 Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs Prediction of 2010 Jan 26.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 0857-00124-1 * constellation : Virgo * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 11 42 37.9182 DE: +08 42 52.633 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .025, .028 ) * V mag [mag]: 9.4 * B mag [mag]: 10.0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (86) Semele approx. diameter [km]: 121 approx. diameter ["]: .065 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.56700 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2010 Jan 25 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 968 number of rejected observations: 94 time covered by the observations: 1907 May 18 - 2009 Dec 27 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.018, 0.013, 114° remarks: * orbital elements for (86) Semele : Mean anomaly = 108.19443086 deg Arg. of pericenter = 308.14257149 deg Long. of node = 86.44397035 deg Inclination = 4.82088478 deg Eccentricity = 0.20843078 Semimajor axis = 3.11444813 AU Perihelion dist = 2.46530127 AU Mag: H = 8.54, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 55234.66500000 TDT (2010 Feb 07.665) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2010 Feb 7 86 Semele 15h 57.7m UT 9.4 11 42 37.918 8 42 52.63TYC 0857-00124-1 10.0 13.9 121 11.3 2.567 -1.166 11.35 158.5551 8.712 -55.90 -15.20 15.9624 0.19776 0.30628 -5.03997 3.31240 -0.00334 0.00086 2000 107.3578962010 2 3.00000308.142571 86.443970 4.8208850.20843078 3.1144481 2.4653013 8.5 5.00.15 RATE 1.7932150 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.031 0.030 4 1.47 0.031 0 055222.0020100207_0124-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2010 Jan 25, 19:38 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org